RG I think we are in total agreement.
According to HPI tables the difference is closer to £1500 or less, not the £3250. I have always obtained a quote to buy from BCA at the end of my leases but to date never considered their offer good enough. I did factor that into my decision process. Additionally, my man maths makes me want another new one! The relationship I currently have with VWFS is not that convivial, their comms are quite frankly appalling. If it wasn't for the price, I would have walked away months ago. It seems silly now to risk this for 3 weeks and a number plate that financially affects them not me. The cost of it sitting in my drive locked down for an extra 3 weeks is circa £180 vs a potential £4800 hole. Simple really.
As for dealer quotas, the lease deliveries obtained through VWFS direct do not count towards their target numbers. They are given a fee from VWFS for PDI and delivery. Nothing more. My nearest dealer refused to accept any VWFS orders for that reason. So I also don't want to upset that side of the transaction either now we've all but got there. I think if I was buying/owning, my thinking and potential leverage would be very different.
I understand that scenario. Generally speaking on a PCP the car is worth more than the 'balloon payment' however on a Lease you are in a different situation. I am paying cash for a car worth significantly more than £40k and the difference in value of a similar model 3 year old is indeed 'guide price' £3250 different hence waiting.