S3 stolen Lastnight

[davc]

I would be interested in the breakdown between Saloon, SB and HB. Suspect that some of the 4 doors are stolen to order as quick getaway cars etc.

True.

However the saloon is less common so may be harder for the crims to find a similar one and use the plates off it for a stolen one.

 

[S32B]

What about the sportback..?

That has 4 side doors the same as the saloon!!! So no waiting

 

[DrEskimo]

Just because it's more relevant to this thread than the one I originally posted it in, here's a quick and dirty analysis of the claim that the S3 is britains most stolen car.

There's roughly 18250 S3's of all variants and all years Registered with the DVLA, so according to the guardian about 150 per year will get lifted in the next 12 months, or 1 every 2 and a half days...

The second most stolen car in the uk is apparently the defender, because now you can't buy a new one everybody desperately wants a slow noisy unreliable old wartime vintage farm tractor with all the creature comforts of a dungeon.

The DVLA lists 106,000 of the old rust prone jalopy's on their books, so the guardians stat would mean over 600 a year are going to 'new owners', that's nearly 2 a day, or 4 times the number of S3's...

May have seen my response in the other thread, but you rightly point out that it's more relevant to discuss here.
While your calculations are spot on, the conclusions are slightly wrong...

It is precisely because there are so many more LR Defenders that you need to use the rate per 1000 to enable you to compare them.

The figures from the Guardian report are incidence rates. Over a set period of time, it's 'The number of new cases/the total population at risk'. This is then multiplied by 1000 to give you the rate per 1000.

So using your figures:

S3 stolen over 12months = 150
total S3's = 18,250
150/18250*1000 = 8.2 per 1000

LR stolen over 12month = 600
total LR = 106,000
600/106000*1000 = 5.6 per 1000.

If I just took the number stolen, as you rightly say, it would show that 4x more LRs are stolen than S3s.
But this is fundamentally flawed as it does not account for the fact that there are around 6x more LRs around to steal. i.e. if there were 106,000 S3's, then the number would be higher than LR at around 900, based on those rates.

So the rates are a more accurate reflection of the fact that S3s are more likely to be stolen than a LR Defender.

....Assuming all the data collected is accurate of course...!

 

[Corb2000]

Apparently the whole fast getaway car idea is more down to tv/film writers than real life - most getaways involve several switching between several anonymous vehicles parked along the escape route - an Audi S or RS would be way too conspicuous. I witnessed a ram raid that used an old shape 3 series 2 litre petrol dark blue saloon - really common & nondescript.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GSB]

May have seen my response in the other thread, but you rightly point out that it's more relevant to discuss here.
While your calculations are spot on, the conclusions are slightly wrong...

It is precisely because there are so many more LR Defenders that you need to use the rate per 1000 to enable you to compare them.

The figures from the Guardian report are incidence rates. Over a set period of time, it's 'The number of new cases/the total population at risk'. This is then multiplied by 1000 to give you the rate per 1000.

So using your figures:

S3 stolen over 12months = 150
total S3's = 18,250
150/18250*1000 = 8.2 per 1000

LR stolen over 12month = 600
total LR = 106,000
600/106000*1000 = 5.6 per 1000.

If I just took the number stolen, as you rightly say, it would show that 4x more LRs are stolen than S3s.
But this is fundamentally flawed as it does not account for the fact that there are around 6x more LRs around to steal. i.e. if there were 106,000 S3's, then the number would be higher than LR at around 900, based on those rates.

So the rates are a more accurate reflection of the fact that S3s are more likely to be stolen than a LR Defender.

....Assuming all the data collected is accurate of course...!

Good work. I deliberately avoided making any conclusions though, other than to say statistics are ********.

What I wanted to do was debunk the notion that S3's are simply disappearing off driveways at a rate that Audi can barely keep up with and that would make buying one a futile exercise. It's not, and the issue isn't as bad as the headlines are making out.

The use of thefts per thousand vehicles really doesn't work either when comparing these two particular cars. But not for reasons that immediately obvious. The stats are likely to be heavily biased in favour of the Defender due to some key differences. The S3 is a modern hot hatch, around in 3 basic variants over the last 16 years. The Defender is something else entirely since its been in production (as "Defender") for about 25 years, rather longer than the S3, and it currently it spans a great many fields of interest. Not only is it a private vehicle just the same as an S3, but it's also a commercial vehicle, a special fit vehicle, an emergency vehicle, a military vehicle, an amateur competition vehicle, a farm vehicle, an appreciating classic car, a fashion trend, and a national icon that you can break into with a wet five pound note.

Having 'operated' defenders (I hesitate to use the term 'driven') I've experienced first hand their propensity to rust, have lumps fall off, breakdown a lot, and still manage to get an MOT despite being completely and utterly shagged out, before ending up as piles of tragic iron oxide and aluminium gathering dust and cobwebs in the backs of barns while their owners buy something reliable and Japanese. I have no stats to back it up, but I can speculate with some degree of confidence that when compared with the Defender, a much greater proportion of the S3's on the DVLAs records are still used on the road and aren't held together with duct tape, bailing wire and jubilee clips, and are not riddled with holes, dents and cowshit. I can also confidently predict that a vastly higher proportion of defenders actually on the road are in such poor condition that you'd actually be doing the owner a favour if you stole it. Hence the thefts per 1000 vehicles statistic doesn't work, and a thefts per 1000 vehicles that are actually worth stealing stat might be more useful instead. Let's face it, no ones stealing G reg jalopy junk heap land rovers here, the only ones going missing late at night that we need concern ourselves with are the later ones that are still shiny, haven't fallen to bits yet, and can still be broken or moved on for decent money. These ones are a much smaller proportion of the 106,000 still on the books.

 

[DrEskimo]

Good work. I deliberately avoided making any conclusions though, other than to say statistics are ********.

What I wanted to do was debunk the notion that S3's are simply disappearing off driveways at a rate that Audi can barely keep up with and that would make buying one a futile exercise. It's not, and the issue isn't as bad as the headlines are making out.

The use of thefts per thousand vehicles really doesn't work either when comparing these two particular cars. But not for reasons that immediately obvious. The stats are likely to be heavily biased in favour of the Defender due to some key differences. The S3 is a modern hot hatch, around in 3 basic variants over the last 16 years. The Defender is something else entirely since its been in production (as "Defender") for about 25 years, rather longer than the S3, and it currently it spans a great many fields of interest. Not only is it a private vehicle just the same as an S3, but it's also a commercial vehicle, a special fit vehicle, an emergency vehicle, a military vehicle, an amateur competition vehicle, a farm vehicle, an appreciating classic car, a fashion trend, and a national icon that you can break into with a wet five pound note.

Having 'operated' defenders (I hesitate to use the term 'driven') I've experienced first hand their propensity to rust, have lumps fall off, breakdown a lot, and still manage to get an MOT despite being completely and utterly shagged out, before ending up as piles of tragic iron oxide and aluminium gathering dust and cobwebs in the backs of barns while their owners buy something reliable and Japanese. I have no stats to back it up, but I can speculate with some degree of confidence that when compared with the Defender, a much greater proportion of the S3's on the DVLAs records are still used on the road and aren't held together with duct tape, bailing wire and jubilee clips, and are not riddled with holes, dents and cowshit. I can also confidently predict that a vastly higher proportion of defenders actually on the road are in such poor condition that you'd actually be doing the owner a favour if you stole it. Hence the thefts per 1000 vehicles statistic doesn't work, and a thefts per 1000 vehicles that are actually worth stealing stat might be more useful instead. Let's face it, no ones stealing G reg jalopy junk heap land rovers here, the only ones going missing late at night that we need concern ourselves with are the later ones that are still shiny, haven't fallen to bits yet, and can still be broken or moved on for decent money. These ones are a much smaller proportion of the 106,000 still on the books.

I dont doubt any of what you are saying, but I dont agree that reporting it as a rate per 1000 is biased towards the Defender....reporting just the raw number stolen would be biased towards the Defender (600 vs. 150), as it doesn't take into account the fact that, as you say, its been around longer and there are 6x as many more of them than the S3. Hence, why you get a different answer when you report it as a rate (5.6 vs. 8.2).

Your main criticism is more to do with the data collection, which I completely agree with. Lets say half of those 106,000 defenders are decent, and lets assume that only 1/3 of those stolen are actually decent. That would be a rate of just 3.7 per 1000 (200/53,000*1000). Again the rate as a statistic is fine, but now the data is likely to reflect a more reasonable estimate of defenders stolen that is actually worth reporting about.

What all of this doesn't change is that the S3 is the most reported stolen car relative to others....whether the actual figure is a cause of concern is again completely debatable. Certainly not something I consider since its affected by area, where you park it, security measures, etc etc.....

I dont know whether to be offended by your statement about Statistics.....I think it's the use of them by media/governments thats ******!

What's that saying? "You use statistics like a drunk uses a lamppost, for support rather than illumination".

 

[WarwickL]

Comparing percentages based on unequal sample sizes with no validation or causal relationships

Yep, truly useful.

Still, it gives disinterested A45 buyers something to ponder.

 

[WarwickL]

What I wanted to do was debunk the notion that S3's are simply disappearing off driveways at a rate that Audi can barely keep up with and that would make buying one a futile exercise. .

The dealers driveways, agree with that wild assertion.

The lack of the yum cha dealer lot vehicles is a concern however. The deals being offered atm pre FL are absurd, in a good way.

 

[DrEskimo]

Comparing percentages based on unequal sample sizes with no validation or causal relationships

Yep, truly useful.

Still, it gives disinterested A45 buyers something to ponder.

Far more useful than the link you provided from Autocar that you suggest was more reliable....which you still haven't explained...

First you claimed it was because it had full year stats and break down per model. It was pointed out that the Guardian did too, so then you claimed it was because it was based on rates per 1000 and that thats not reliable as a summary estimate.

I've pointed out that 1. you have no idea what stats the Autocar article used and could well of been rates as well, and 2. I showed you that rates are far more reliable compared to raw numbers as a summary statistics, as it accounts for the number of cars that are at risk.

 

[WarwickL]

None of what you referred to or posted used risk as a definable measure or assessment

Using a percentage comparison is always invalid without defining causal factors and the sample variables

 

[DrEskimo]

None of what you referred to or posted used risk as a definable measure or assessment

Using a percentage comparison is always invalid without defining causal factors and the sample variables

Its not risk in the traditional modelling sense...its 'at risk', as in the total population that could incur the event. In this case, the number of total cars that can be stolen.

I agree, the causal factors are more important in the context of someone choosing to buy a car, because if they park it in a garage in a low crime area with a disk lock, the increased incidence of thefts is largely irrelevant to that individual. Nevertheless, it's still interesting that the S3 is the most stolen car.

My point is that none of this explains why the Autocar article was more reliable....? Which was your evidence for saying the S3 isn't the most stolen, a RR is....

 

[cppp]

Here's some interesting facts about Audi Crime Statistics

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/crime/audi

 

[DrEskimo]

Here's some interesting facts about Audi Crime Statistics

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/crime/audi

Good points about the models being lumped into one.

There top 10 is another interesting statistical faux pas....no prizes for guessing why all 10 most stolen cars were older cars....

Whereas the Guardian article looked at a discrete time period of just 2015, this one seems to have just taken every car ever stolen and divided it by number registered (as long as it was more than 1000). Of course, the problem is that cars from the 90s have had 20 odd years to be stolen, while a newer car has had less time...

The solution is to change the denominator to years at risk, not just number at risk. That way you increase the denominator for those older cars and give a more accurate reflection of the rate. You can then express it in a similar metric to the Guardian report as a rate per 1000 per year.

Always need a standard measure of time for an incidence rate, otherwise its misleading.

 

[Chamb0]

Just an update if anyone was interested, car was never found and the insurance has now payed out. Actually got more then i valued the car at

 

[davc]

Excellent, glad you got it sorted mate. Do you plan on getting another one?

 

[Chamb0]

Excellent, glad you got it sorted mate. Do you plan on getting another one?

I've not had the best luck with the 3 Audi's i've had. Also my work is now mostly based 3 miles from my house, so i might just get my self a run around and keep 23k in the bank

 

[Bristle Hound]

Just an update if anyone was interested, car was never found and the insurance has now payed out. Actually got more then i valued the car at

@Chamb0 - Pleased it all got sorted to your advantage mate
Personally, if my Audi ever 'went' I wouldn't want it back, under any circumstances

 

[gamegenie]

@Chamb0 - Pleased it all got sorted to your advantage mate
Personally, if my Audi ever 'went' I wouldn't want it back, under any circumstances

What if the thief took your Audi and got it detailed inside and out, got all the swirl scratches, rock chips buffed out, painted, and even Opticoated it?

 

[WarwickL]

The latest news here in Aussie is thieves are targetting new Mustangs. Breaking into the house, stealing the keys and whatever else they find, in some cases beating the crap out of the owner and driving off with the car (parts or rebirth or for use in other crimes).

Glad we live in a gated community on the fifth floor in a penthouse and the car is behind double security gates and a garage.

Given the waiting list for the new Mustang is 18 months, I can see why they are desirable.

 

[pburv]

What if the thief took your Audi and got it detailed inside and out, got all the swirl scratches, rock chips buffed out, painted, and even Opticoated it?

Ha Ha ....
No amount of detailing will ever get rid of the smell of the theiving scumbag who steals it...

 

[S32B]

So how long does it have to be missing before they pay out?

 

[Bristle Hound]

What if the thief took your Audi and got it detailed inside and out, got all the swirl scratches, rock chips buffed out, painted, and even Opticoated it?

@gamegenie - PMSL

But in answer to your question - Nope !

I would still feel as tho' I had been !

As well as this -

Ha Ha ....
No amount of detailing will ever get rid of the smell of the theiving scumbag who steals it...

 

[Chamb0]

So how long does it have to be missing before they pay out?

I got payed out after 3 weeks

 

[Gugne]

If it's any consolation there's a similar thread running on the Golf R forum and I believe on the Escort RS forum.
The only definite conclusion that has been reached is that the thieves prefer 4/5 door examples.

 

[S32B]

I got payed out after 3 weeks

Glad it went well for you then Well as well as it can go after your pride and joy has been stolen!

Who were you insured with? it's good to know for anyone looking to renew, as it's when things go wrong you find out how good they are.

 

[Scottyg]

Glad things are all done and dusted. Go get another Audi. You'll miss it terribly.

 

[richinsoton]

Glad to hear you got paid out more than you thought you would, even if it's not the most convienent way to have your car valued!.

 

[Mr Mustard]

@Chamb0 - Pleased it all got sorted to your advantage mate
Personally, if my Audi ever 'went' I wouldn't want it back, under any circumstances

Don't want mine back but don't have any choice. After 15 weeks it's been repaired and is coming back Friday.

WBAC valuation is 7k below what I paid for it in May. Don't know whether to take the hit or keep the best car I've owned.

 

[pburv]

Don't want mine back but don't have any choice. After 15 weeks it's been repaired and is coming back Friday.

WBAC valuation is 7k below what I paid for it in May. Don't know whether to take the hit or keep the best car I've owned.

Tough one! If it was me I would be tempted to put it up for sale...But then again 7k is a whole lot of money to lose...
Is it on pcp?
If you bought it outright then it would be best to keep it for a few years until the depreciation plateau's out...
Either way it's a bitter pill to swallow...

 

[lfcrule1972]

Just an update if anyone was interested, car was never found and the insurance has now payed out. Actually got more then i valued the car at

Pleased for you, I have to say I'd be tempted to get another in your position, despite all the hassles.

Good luck with whatever you decide

Here's some interesting facts about Audi Crime Statistics

http://www.honestjohn.co.uk/crime/audi

I couldn't see the S1 in that list, hopefully it's a good thing