Car thefts up by 30%......

[T-800]

Car thefts up 30% as gangs beat new tech http://news.sky.com/story/car-thefts-spike-as-gangs-adapt-to-new-tech-11193798
http://news.sky.com/story/car-thefts-spike-as-gangs-adapt-to-new-tech-11193798

 

[Topcat1910]

Car thefts up 30% as gangs beat new techhttp://news.sky.com/story/car-thefts-spike-as-gangs-adapt-to-new-tech-11193798

Scarry isnt it, I had men break in my house at 5.30 in the morning the other week, I went psycho! Was only after I thought how licky I was as they cpuld of had knives or anything

 

[DrEskimo]

30% rise, but of a substantially lower number compared to the early 00's.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...cles/overviewofvehiclerelatedtheft/2017-07-20

In 1999 police recorded 1.1m vehicle related crimes, that now sits at 407,000. A 60% decline. The police recorded numbers indicate only a 5% increase between 2013 and 2017, and a slight decline between 2013 and 2016, which are the dates used in this Sky report.

I think it's clear from the difference between the survey numbers and reported numbers that vehicle thefts are underreported. Interestingly, the survey responses indicate a steady decline still.

What I can't wrap my head around from the news article is the really low numbers of 65k and 85k, compared to the ONS report that suggests it was 387k and 366k.

No real indication of what it means by '40 police forces', or how it's defined vehicle thefts. The ONS report suggests that this data is based on just 16% of all data provided nationally.

Personally I would take the results from the ONS with a clear methodology, transparent data collection, and numerous statistical experts over a cobbled together report from Sky.....

So yes, a rise, but relative to the early 2000's, still much lower, and likely the 30% figure has been inflated due to sampling bias.

 

[Terminator x]

Scaremongering by the papers then, surprise surprise.

TX.

Sent from my STV100-4 using Tapatalk

 

[Bristle Hound]

Insurance premiums to no doubt follow

 

[SteveMcB]

I don't know if it's a UK wide phenomenon -probably is- but in Scotland the police got really quite sneaky with their stats a few years back.

In the old days if someone broke into your house and piled your 24" widescreen and VHS recorder into the back of your XR3i it was 2 crimes, ie one theft by housebreaking (burglary) and one theft motor vehicle.

After the changes it became one recorded crime, theft by housebreaking, the S3 being counted as household 'property' alongside the ipad, xbox etc.

This resulted in a proven decline in 'recorded' stolen vehicles even though the streets were more often like a scene from GTA.

Admittedly recording guidelines could have changed again but I'm guessing the number of stolen cars probably isn't hugely different, it's just that the tech savvy are getting better at doing it without breaking into your house - which means the police can't 'hide' it, they have to record it as a theft motor vehicle.

If I was the cynical type I'd anticipate that there'll soon be a new offence of key cloning so the vehicle theft can be conveniently slipped in there somewhere.

Lies, damned lies and statistics!!

 

[Flowrider99]

Car theft is getting easier due to keyless entry and keyless go. All the thief needs is a laptop, some software and your car is gone. No breaking into the car or forcing the ignition, just stand by your front door, scan for the keys signal, transmit it to the car and hey presto....no more car.

 

[DrEskimo]

Lies, damned lies and statistics!!

The statistics don’t lie. The data they have does show a 30% increase...?

It’s just garbage sloppy journalism by not presenting the data in the context of the wider national trend, and using a sub-set of data without any indication on how representative it is on a national level.

Don’t blame statistics, blame poor methodology, lack of transparency and sensationalist journalism!!

Always always always check the original sources, and in this case where it’s conducted by the journalist themselves, find official statistics and realise how pants it really is....

 

[SteveMcB]

The statistics don’t lie. The data they have does show a 30% increase...?

It’s just garbage sloppy journalism by not presenting the data in the context of the wider national trend, and using a sub-set of data without any indication on how representative it is on a national level.

Don’t blame statistics, blame poor methodology, lack of transparency and sensationalist journalism!!

Always always always check the original sources, and in this case where it’s conducted by the journalist themselves, find official statistics and realise how pants it really is....

LOL, not sure if you're agreeing with me or disagreeing

Statistics don't lie? Interesting premise, but it's just a throwaway quote (attributed to Disraeli I believe) which I used tongue in cheek.

The data they have may show a 30% increase but how reliable is their data?

You're right about methodology though, which is what I was getting at, statistics don't mean a thing unless the original data input is accurate across the board.

As far as checking sources goes, or believing the garbage spouted by the media, you're preaching to the converted.

Books have always been and always will be - ******. When the public sector police, NHS, education etc are all facing cutbacks but still expected to hit targets it's sadly inevitable. IMHO.

 

[DrEskimo]

LOL, not sure if you're agreeing with me or disagreeing

Statistics don't lie? Interesting premise, but it's just a throwaway quote (attributed to Disraeli I believe) which I used tongue in cheek.

The data they have may show a 30% increase but how reliable is their data?

You're right about methodology though, which is what I was getting at, statistics don't mean a thing unless the original data input is accurate across the board.

As far as checking sources goes, or believing the garbage spouted by the media, you're preaching to the converted.

Books have always been and always will be - ******. When the public sector police, NHS, education etc are all facing cutbacks but still expected to hit targets it's sadly inevitable. IMHO.

Yes sorry...was unnecessarily ranty as I was agreeing with you...!

It’s the quote that I disagree with. To me it suggests that statistics are always misleading and not to be trusted, when in fact they are an extremely useful tool in just about anything. It’s the misuse of statistics and poor methodology that is the problem, not statistics in of themselves.

I’ve always liked this phrase, that I think sums up the issue with the Sky report (and pretty much most media reports...!).

“They use statistics much like a drunk uses a lamppost; more for support rather than illumination”.

 

[Ledgie]

There is some clever play on words and numbers here.

If someone broke in to my house, stole my car, and tried to swap the plates and muck about with the vin, then they have stolen my car, it is a 'car theft'.

If someone broke in to my house, stole my car, and set fire to it or dumped it somewhere, then it has been taken without consent (TWOC), which although an offence under the Theft Act, is difeerent to 'car theft'.

To the victim it's all the same!!

Different forces consider 'car thefts' to be different things. Some will say it includes TWOC, some not. At the start of a new parliament (or the start of a police commissioner term) the police will declare car theft (theft and TWOC) are sky high, in order to secure more funding.Parliament will delcare it sky high to show the failing of the previous government. When a commissioner or parliament are seeking re-election, they will say car thefts (just theft not TWOC) have been slashed.

They do the same for burglary. Burglary (both dwelling and dwelling) versus people having their homes broken in to (that'll be just dwelling burglary)