Dilemma - Advice Needed!

Dazzeroo · Dec 23, 2014

What with the current oil price shenanigans, the uncertainty around jobs and rates up in the North East of Scotland is as bad as I can remember. I've managed to escape the first round of job losses (I am a contractor at a large Oil & Gas Operator) but there will be another round of reviews late March and I'll be receiving a 10% rate cut in the New Year...
Also, my wife is expecting (baby due in July) & is also a contractor so will be giving up work in May probably...

So, do I:

a. Cancel my S3 order (due for delivery in the middle of March)?

b. Wait out till Jan/Feb and see what the O&G market conditions are?

c. Give the dealer a heads up now & see what they say?

My instinct is to cancel the order assuming it's not too late. The £3k going into the car may come in handy next year....

Thoughts?

P.S. I'm currently in a mapped M135i so no real hardship although it is a bit of a pig and it's a three door!!

Liquidfusion-S3 · Dec 23, 2014

I would choose 'A' if I was you for peace of mind.

AndyB-S3 · Dec 23, 2014

Tbh I would wait it out until new year, end January start of Feb. IMO the market is going to pick up again, nobody could simply afford for it to go t***s up.. Far far too many people will be scuppered. And also there is a lot of media scaremongering making it sound worse too.

I am in a similar market and just collected my S3 on the 14th so kinda get your feelings.. Although I am a bit luckier we have some renewables on the go just now so doesn't seem too bad.. We are due some large contract awards in January so hopefully they go ahead.

Fingers crossed for you mate, if everything goes ok you are going to love the S3!!!

HawkeyeS3 · Dec 23, 2014

I would speak with your dealer to find out the absolute latest date you can cancel without losing your deposit. Option A sounds the right one to me, but you never know how things may change so if the dealer is aware and you can leave the decision until the last minute things may (or may not) be clearer then. The key is to safeguard your deposit if the worst should happen.

Dazzeroo · Dec 23, 2014

HawkeyeS3 said:
I would speak with your dealer to find out the absolute latest date you can cancel without losing your deposit. Option A sounds the right one to me, but you never know how things may change so if the dealer is aware and you can leave the decision until the last minute things may (or may not) be clearer then. The key is to safeguard your deposit if the worst should happen.

I didn't put down a deposit!

Presumably because we recently bought a new Q5 I guess?

CraigI · Dec 23, 2014

Cancel. Not worth the risk!
Your current car is more fun anyway!

Who do you work for?
Things are going to be tough (especially for contractors) for the next year to 18 months at the least I think.

Dazzeroo · Dec 23, 2014

CraigI said:
Cancel. Not worth the risk!
Your current car is more fun anyway!

Who do you work for?
Things are going to be tough (especially for contractors) for the next year to 18 months at the least I think.

Maersk Oil. I guess I'm kinda hoping the oil price will stabilise but can't see it the way things are going...

Pulp84 · Dec 24, 2014

Difficult decision!

I went to an event the other day where the guest speaker was my companies chief economist (very respected guy in banking circles). He said the oil price is driven by a wider geopolitical issue (instead of supply and demand) where the US and Saudi Arabia are trying to bring Russia to its knees over Syria and Ukraine. Seems to be working.....

He said the US can control the world far easier nowadays with banking regulation and oil prices than it can by sending aircraft carriers and troops. When Putin gives in (which he was expecting to be soon) then prices will stabilise.

I'd wait out personally and choose b

ndk83 · Dec 24, 2014

As others have stated for peace of mind go with option would be A.

But definitely have a chat with your dealer before u make a decision. Cause, atleast in my country, you just put a deposit down to book urself a vehicle, and when the car arrives, if you back out (for whatever reason) they can easily sell the car to someone else. That way, you can re-evaluate ur situation in March.

Pulp84 said:
Difficult decision!

I went to an event the other day where the guest speaker was my companies chief economist (very respected guy in banking circles). He said the oil price is driven by a wider geopolitical issue (instead of supply and demand) where the US and Saudi Arabia are trying to bring Russia to its knees over Syria and Ukraine. Seems to be working.....

He said the US can control the world far easier nowadays with banking regulation and oil prices than it can by sending aircraft carriers and troops. When Putin gives in (which he was expecting to be soon) then prices will stabilise.

I'd wait out personally and choose b

Dont forget Saudi is also hurting the US by driving out the competition from the shale gas producers since they cant produce shale under $80 a barrel.

Psyman79 · Dec 24, 2014

I work for Asco in Aberdeen and deal with Chevron & Conoco Phillips among others and they're going through the same just now. Chevron did all their cuts a couple of months ago and COP are set to let 200 odd people go in the next wee while so i've seen how horrible it can get so i feel for you Dazzeroo.

Regarding your options, i was told by Sean at Aberdeen Audi that i could cancel right up to collection day with no penalty. I would suggest leaving the order live for now and see what happens in the next couple of months.

Hope everything works out for you.

Si.

S4piper · Dec 24, 2014

When I ran through all the finance paperwork I was advised that Volkswagen finance offer payment protection insurance (the dealership they don't go anywhere near it but if you want to contact them direct). Now I hate those phone calls as much as anyone but I'm sure if used in the right way it could enable you still get the car and in the worst case, cover your finance until you find work....or Option A.

Vertigo1 · Dec 24, 2014

Dazzeroo said:
Maersk Oil. I guess I'm kinda hoping the oil price will stabilise but can't see it the way things are going...

It seems the big producers have no interest in stopping or limiting production to bolster the price any time soon. Won't pretend to understand the economics or motivations behind it but it's not just the smaller companies and nations who are feeling the brunt - Russia's whole economy is in major trouble as a result.

Cheap fuel at the pumps is great but I do wonder what the knock-on effects of this will be for economies and jobs globally.

Pulp84 · Dec 24, 2014

Vertigo1 said:
It seems the big producers have no interest in stopping or limiting production to bolster the price any time soon. Won't pretend to understand the economics or motivations behind it but it's not just the smaller companies and nations who are feeling the brunt - Russia's whole economy is in major trouble as a result.

Cheap fuel at the pumps is great but I do wonder what the knock-on effects of this will be for economies and jobs globally.

Good point. Putin I think is dangerous if pushed also.....

I like having cheap fuel don't get me wrong but it could bite the west in the future. Hope it works out OK for the OP

Pulp84 · Dec 24, 2014

Vertigo1 said:
It seems the big producers have no interest in stopping or limiting production to bolster the price any time soon. Won't pretend to understand the economics or motivations behind it but it's not just the smaller companies and nations who are feeling the brunt - Russia's whole economy is in major trouble as a result.

Cheap fuel at the pumps is great but I do wonder what the knock-on effects of this will be for economies and jobs globally.

Good point. Also Putin I think is dangerous if pushed too hard.....

I like having cheap fuel don't get me wrong but it could bite the west in the future. Hope it works out OK for the OP

Dazzeroo · Dec 24, 2014

Contacted the dealer via email and explained my current situation. I did try and call but they must have shut up shop!! Will wait and see what they say now, at least I'm being up front and honest.

Thank you to everyone who replied, much appreciated

A3_Rider · Dec 24, 2014

I think we all have our own views on economic predictions and any articles to suit that opinion. If you're genuinely asking and you already have a car on par with S3 performance with decent luxury I would recommend cancelling too. Even if you're better off in March and think you shouldn't have cancelled at least you chose the safe option for your family.

On the other hand if you like risks then don't cancel and keep telling yourself it's ok, like this guy;

Dazzeroo · Dec 24, 2014

A3_Rider said:
I think we all have our own views on economic predictions and any articles to suit that opinion. If you're genuinely asking and you already have a car on par with S3 performance with decent luxury I would recommend cancelling too. Even if you're better off in March and think you shouldn't have cancelled at least you chose the safe option for your family.

On the other hand if you like risks then don't cancel and keep telling yourself it's ok, like this guy;

As in, his head is up his ****?

steeve · Dec 25, 2014

Makes you wonder doesn't it? These companies make billions yet they are soon shedding staff. They'll need them again in a few months time when the price increases. I find it amazing just how easy it is for the larger country's governments to manipulate prices. Must be having a huge effect on the UK's tax income.
However I think you can always re-order a new S3 when things pick up. Congratulations on the baby news...........look after your family first.

Dazzeroo · Dec 25, 2014

The problem is and always will be the governments policy on taxation in this country.

Hydrocarbons are taxed at between 60 & 80 percent!! It's only recently that the government has decided to relax its policies on Exploration but it's still not enough and certainly insufficient in the current climate.

Never mind, the working/middle class will continue to be expected to prop up the rest of the economy, discriminated against & punished financially for working hard & striving to make this island a better more prosperous place for all!!

Rant over; Merry Xmas

cilurnum · Dec 27, 2014

Pulp84 said:
He said the US can control the world far easier nowadays with banking regulation and oil prices than it can by sending aircraft carriers and troops. When Putin gives in (which he was expecting to be soon) then prices will stabilise.

They can yes (although their shale industry is now completely uneconomical, not that it ever was), however, Putin will not give in and this kind of stuff will have a lot of unintended consequences for the west. All this is doing is pushing Russia and China closer together in terms of economic cooperation and they will do more business by bypassing the US dollar. The dollar is what gives the US its power and it is slowly being eroded away.

steeve · Dec 27, 2014

It's difficult to see what can replace the Dollar as a world standard. It's not likely to be the Rouble or the Renminbi. Whilst the Russians and Chinese may move closer there will always be the need to have significant dealings with the rest of the world. So if it's not Dollars it'll have to be hard goods.

veeeight · Dec 27, 2014

Why, the Euro, of course

Oh.

Dilemma - Advice Needed!

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